Clinically relevant thresholds for ultrasensitive HIV drug resistance testing: a multi-country nested case-control study.

Background: Implementation of ultrasensitive HIV drug resistance tests for routine clinical use is hampered by uncertainty about the clinical relevance of drug-resistant minority variants. We assessed different detection thresholds for pretreatment drug resistance to predict an increased risk of virological failure.

Methods: We did a case-control study nested within a prospective multicountry cohort. Our study included patients from 12 clinical sites in Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia. We defined cases as patients with virological failure (ie, those who had either viral load ≥400 copies per mL at 12 months or had switched to second-line antiretroviral therapy [ART] as a result of virological failure before 12 months) and controls as those with viral suppression (viral load 400 copies per mL at 12 months) on first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy. We assessed pretreatment drug resistance with Illumina MiSeq next-generation sequencing, using the International Antiviral Society (IAS)-USA mutation list or the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database (HIVDB) genotypic sensitivity score. We calculated diagnostic accuracy measures and assessed the odds of virological failure using conditional logistic regression for 1%, 5%, and 10% pretreatment drug resistance detection thresholds, compared with the conventional 20% or more used in Sanger-based sequencing.